If PHX visited DET today, our model would lean Detroit Pistons with a 74.7% win probability. That reflects a season-long net rating edge of +5.1 points for DET at home (plus ELO, rest, and recent form factored in).

Hypothetical matchup — these teams aren't scheduled to play. The model updates daily as ratings and ELO move.

Team Stats Comparison

2025–26 Season

-3.0

Net Rating

2.1

114.7

Offensive Rating

114.6

117.7

Defensive Rating

112.5

98.3

Pace

100.3

PHX (Away) DET (Home)

Recent Form

PHX 45-41 L4 Avg margin last 5: -7.4

L OKC

W OKC

DET 67-29 L1 Avg margin last 5: -6.0

L CLE

W CLE

L CLE

Head-to-Head History

DET wins

PHX wins

2026-01-29 PHX 96 @ DET 114 DET W

2026-01-15 PHX 105 @ DET 108 DET W

2025-01-18 PHX 125 @ DET 121 PHX W

2024-12-21 PHX 133 @ DET 125 PHX W

2024-02-14 PHX 100 @ DET 116 DET W

How Often Has the Model Been Right?

Verified track record across every prediction we've made — not specific to this matchup.

67.1%

All Games

7146 tracked

75.1%

High Conf.

>65% picks

80.0%

Last 50

recent games

The model is an isotonic-calibrated XGBoost classifier — a 74.7% confidence above means "the model picked teams at this confidence level and was right about 75.1% of the time" historically.

See full track record with calibration & Brier score