If PHX visited GSW today, our model would lean Golden State Warriors with a 51.8% win probability. That reflects a season-long net rating edge of +6.2 points for GSW at home (plus ELO, rest, and recent form factored in).

Hypothetical matchup — these teams aren't scheduled to play. The model updates daily as ratings and ELO move.

Team Stats Comparison

2025–26 Season

-3.0

Net Rating

3.2

114.7

Offensive Rating

114.2

117.7

Defensive Rating

111.0

98.3

Pace

99.4

PHX (Away) GSW (Home)

Recent Form

PHX 45-41 L4 Avg margin last 5: -7.4

L OKC

W OKC

GSW 37-45 L3 Avg margin last 5: -4.6

L LAC

L SAC

L LAL

W SAC

L HOU

Head-to-Head History

GSW wins

PHX wins

2026-02-05 PHX 101 @ GSW 97 PHX W

2025-12-20 PHX 116 @ GSW 119 GSW W

2025-12-18 PHX 98 @ GSW 99 GSW W

2025-11-04 PHX 107 @ GSW 118 GSW W

2025-04-08 PHX 133 @ GSW 95 PHX W

How Often Has the Model Been Right?

Verified track record across every prediction we've made — not specific to this matchup.

67.1%

All Games

7146 tracked

75.1%

High Conf.

>65% picks

80.0%

Last 50

recent games

The model is an isotonic-calibrated XGBoost classifier — a 51.8% confidence above means "the model picked teams at this confidence level and was right about 75.1% of the time" historically.

See full track record with calibration & Brier score