If PHX visited NOP today, our model would lean Phoenix Suns with a 61.2% win probability. That reflects a season-long net rating edge of -6.4 points for NOP at home (plus ELO, rest, and recent form factored in).

Hypothetical matchup — these teams aren't scheduled to play. The model updates daily as ratings and ELO move.

Team Stats Comparison

2025–26 Season

-3.0

Net Rating

-9.4

114.7

Offensive Rating

109.7

117.7

Defensive Rating

119.1

98.3

Pace

99.8

PHX (Away) NOP (Home)

Recent Form

PHX 45-41 L4 Avg margin last 5: -7.4

L OKC

W OKC

NOP 26-56 L2 Avg margin last 5: -4.2

L MIN

L BOS

W UTA

L ORL

L SAC

Head-to-Head History

NOP wins

PHX wins

2026-03-06 PHX 116 @ NOP 118 NOP W

2025-12-27 PHX 123 @ NOP 114 PHX W

2025-12-26 PHX 115 @ NOP 108 PHX W

2025-11-10 PHX 98 @ NOP 121 NOP W

2025-02-28 PHX 108 @ NOP 125 NOP W

How Often Has the Model Been Right?

Verified track record across every prediction we've made — not specific to this matchup.

67.1%

All Games

7146 tracked

75.1%

High Conf.

>65% picks

80.0%

Last 50

recent games

The model is an isotonic-calibrated XGBoost classifier — a 61.2% confidence above means "the model picked teams at this confidence level and was right about 75.1% of the time" historically.

See full track record with calibration & Brier score