If PHX visited OKC today, our model would lean Oklahoma City Thunder with a 89.7% win probability. That reflects a season-long net rating edge of +15.7 points for OKC at home (plus ELO, rest, and recent form factored in).

Hypothetical matchup — these teams aren't scheduled to play. The model updates daily as ratings and ELO move.

Team Stats Comparison

2025–26 Season

-3.0

Net Rating

12.7

114.7

Offensive Rating

119.2

117.7

Defensive Rating

106.6

98.3

Pace

100.9

PHX (Away) OKC (Home)

Recent Form

PHX 45-41 L4 Avg margin last 5: -7.4

L OKC

W OKC

OKC 75-23 L3 Avg margin last 5: -10.2

L SAS

W SAS

L SAS

Head-to-Head History

OKC wins

PHX wins

2026-04-27 PHX 131 @ OKC 122 PHX W

2026-04-25 PHX 121 @ OKC 109 PHX W

2026-04-22 PHX 107 @ OKC 120 OKC W

2026-04-19 PHX 84 @ OKC 119 OKC W

2026-04-12 PHX 135 @ OKC 103 PHX W

How Often Has the Model Been Right?

Verified track record across every prediction we've made — not specific to this matchup.

67.1%

All Games

7146 tracked

75.1%

High Conf.

>65% picks

80.0%

Last 50

recent games

The model is an isotonic-calibrated XGBoost classifier — a 89.7% confidence above means "the model picked teams at this confidence level and was right about 75.1% of the time" historically.

See full track record with calibration & Brier score