If PHX visited ORL today, our model would lean Phoenix Suns with a 61.2% win probability. That reflects a season-long net rating edge of +2.8 points for ORL at home (plus ELO, rest, and recent form factored in).

Hypothetical matchup — these teams aren't scheduled to play. The model updates daily as ratings and ELO move.

Team Stats Comparison

2025–26 Season

-3.0

Net Rating

-0.2

114.7

Offensive Rating

108.9

117.7

Defensive Rating

109.1

98.3

Pace

96.5

PHX (Away) ORL (Home)

Recent Form

PHX 45-41 L4 Avg margin last 5: -7.4

L OKC

W OKC

ORL 48-41 L3 Avg margin last 5: -5.8

L DET

W DET

Head-to-Head History

ORL wins

PHX wins

2026-03-31 PHX 111 @ ORL 115 ORL W

2026-02-21 PHX 110 @ ORL 113 ORL W

2024-12-08 PHX 110 @ ORL 115 ORL W

2024-11-18 PHX 109 @ ORL 99 PHX W

2024-01-28 PHX 98 @ ORL 113 ORL W

How Often Has the Model Been Right?

Verified track record across every prediction we've made — not specific to this matchup.

67.1%

All Games

7146 tracked

75.1%

High Conf.

>65% picks

80.0%

Last 50

recent games

The model is an isotonic-calibrated XGBoost classifier — a 61.2% confidence above means "the model picked teams at this confidence level and was right about 75.1% of the time" historically.

See full track record with calibration & Brier score