If PHX visited POR today, our model would lean Portland Trail Blazers with a 63.8% win probability. That reflects a season-long net rating edge of +0.3 points for POR at home (plus ELO, rest, and recent form factored in).

Hypothetical matchup — these teams aren't scheduled to play. The model updates daily as ratings and ELO move.

Team Stats Comparison

2025–26 Season

-3.0

Net Rating

-2.7

114.7

Offensive Rating

111.0

117.7

Defensive Rating

113.7

98.3

Pace

99.5

PHX (Away) POR (Home)

Recent Form

PHX 45-41 L4 Avg margin last 5: -7.4

L OKC

W OKC

POR 43-44 L3 Avg margin last 5: -12.4

L SAS

W SAS

L SAS

Head-to-Head History

POR wins

PHX wins

2026-02-22 PHX 92 @ POR 77 PHX W

2026-02-03 PHX 130 @ POR 125 PHX W

2025-11-18 PHX 127 @ POR 110 PHX W

2025-02-03 PHX 119 @ POR 121 POR W

2025-02-01 PHX 108 @ POR 127 POR W

How Often Has the Model Been Right?

Verified track record across every prediction we've made — not specific to this matchup.

67.1%

All Games

7146 tracked

75.1%

High Conf.

>65% picks

80.0%

Last 50

recent games

The model is an isotonic-calibrated XGBoost classifier — a 63.8% confidence above means "the model picked teams at this confidence level and was right about 75.1% of the time" historically.

See full track record with calibration & Brier score