If PHX visited SAC today, our model would lean Phoenix Suns with a 63.3% win probability. That reflects a season-long net rating edge of +3.6 points for SAC at home (plus ELO, rest, and recent form factored in).

Hypothetical matchup — these teams aren't scheduled to play. The model updates daily as ratings and ELO move.

Team Stats Comparison

2025–26 Season

-3.0

Net Rating

0.6

114.7

Offensive Rating

115.9

117.7

Defensive Rating

115.3

98.3

Pace

98.9

PHX (Away) SAC (Home)

Recent Form

PHX 45-41 L4 Avg margin last 5: -7.4

L OKC

W OKC

SAC 22-60 L1 Avg margin last 5: -7.2

L POR

W GSW

L GSW

L LAC

W NOP

Head-to-Head History

SAC wins

PHX wins

2026-03-03 PHX 114 @ SAC 103 PHX W

2026-01-02 PHX 102 @ SAC 129 SAC W

2025-11-26 PHX 112 @ SAC 100 PHX W

2025-10-22 PHX 116 @ SAC 120 SAC W

2025-04-13 PHX 98 @ SAC 109 SAC W

How Often Has the Model Been Right?

Verified track record across every prediction we've made — not specific to this matchup.

67.1%

All Games

7146 tracked

75.1%

High Conf.

>65% picks

80.0%

Last 50

recent games

The model is an isotonic-calibrated XGBoost classifier — a 63.3% confidence above means "the model picked teams at this confidence level and was right about 75.1% of the time" historically.

See full track record with calibration & Brier score