If PHX visited UTA today, our model would lean Phoenix Suns with a 77.8% win probability. That reflects a season-long net rating edge of -6.2 points for UTA at home (plus ELO, rest, and recent form factored in).

Hypothetical matchup — these teams aren't scheduled to play. The model updates daily as ratings and ELO move.

Team Stats Comparison

2025–26 Season

-3.0

Net Rating

-9.2

114.7

Offensive Rating

110.2

117.7

Defensive Rating

119.4

98.3

Pace

100.8

PHX (Away) UTA (Home)

Recent Form

PHX 45-41 L4 Avg margin last 5: -7.4

L OKC

W OKC

UTA 22-60 L1 Avg margin last 5: -13.2

L LAL

W MEM

L NOP

L OKC

L HOU

Head-to-Head History

UTA wins

PHX wins

2026-03-28 PHX 109 @ UTA 134 UTA W

2025-10-31 PHX 96 @ UTA 118 UTA W

2025-10-27 PHX 134 @ UTA 138 UTA W

2025-02-07 PHX 127 @ UTA 135 UTA W

2025-01-11 PHX 106 @ UTA 114 UTA W

How Often Has the Model Been Right?

Verified track record across every prediction we've made — not specific to this matchup.

67.1%

All Games

7146 tracked

75.1%

High Conf.

>65% picks

80.0%

Last 50

recent games

The model is an isotonic-calibrated XGBoost classifier — a 77.8% confidence above means "the model picked teams at this confidence level and was right about 75.1% of the time" historically.

See full track record with calibration & Brier score