If POR visited DAL today, our model would lean Portland Trail Blazers with a 63.3% win probability. That reflects a season-long net rating edge of +1.4 points for DAL at home (plus ELO, rest, and recent form factored in).

Hypothetical matchup — these teams aren't scheduled to play. The model updates daily as ratings and ELO move.

Team Stats Comparison

2025–26 Season

-2.7

Net Rating

-1.3

111.0

Offensive Rating

113.7

Defensive Rating

115.0

99.5

Pace

100.2

POR (Away) DAL (Home)

Recent Form

POR 43-44 L3 Avg margin last 5: -12.4

L SAS

W SAS

L SAS

DAL 26-56 W1 Avg margin last 5: -2.0

W CHI

L SAS

L PHX

L LAC

W LAL

Head-to-Head History

DAL wins

POR wins

2026-03-27 POR 100 @ DAL 93 POR W

2025-12-29 POR 122 @ DAL 125 DAL W

2025-11-16 POR 133 @ DAL 138 DAL W

2025-01-09 POR 111 @ DAL 117 DAL W

2024-12-28 POR 122 @ DAL 126 DAL W

How Often Has the Model Been Right?

Verified track record across every prediction we've made — not specific to this matchup.

67.1%

All Games

7146 tracked

75.1%

High Conf.

>65% picks

80.0%

Last 50

recent games

The model is an isotonic-calibrated XGBoost classifier — a 63.3% confidence above means "the model picked teams at this confidence level and was right about 75.1% of the time" historically.

See full track record with calibration & Brier score