If POR visited DEN today, our model would lean Denver Nuggets with a 65.4% win probability. That reflects a season-long net rating edge of +6.5 points for DEN at home (plus ELO, rest, and recent form factored in).

Hypothetical matchup — these teams aren't scheduled to play. The model updates daily as ratings and ELO move.

Team Stats Comparison

2025–26 Season

-2.7

Net Rating

3.8

111.0

Offensive Rating

118.9

113.7

Defensive Rating

115.1

99.5

Pace

100.7

POR (Away) DEN (Home)

Recent Form

POR 43-44 L3 Avg margin last 5: -12.4

L SAS

W SAS

L SAS

DEN 56-32 L1 Avg margin last 5: -7.6

L MIN

W MIN

L MIN

Head-to-Head History

DEN wins

POR wins

2026-04-06 POR 132 @ DEN 137 DEN W

2026-03-22 POR 112 @ DEN 128 DEN W

2026-02-20 POR 157 @ DEN 103 POR W

2025-10-31 POR 107 @ DEN 109 DEN W

2025-03-21 POR 109 @ DEN 128 DEN W

How Often Has the Model Been Right?

Verified track record across every prediction we've made — not specific to this matchup.

67.1%

All Games

7146 tracked

75.1%

High Conf.

>65% picks

80.0%

Last 50

recent games

The model is an isotonic-calibrated XGBoost classifier — a 65.4% confidence above means "the model picked teams at this confidence level and was right about 75.1% of the time" historically.

See full track record with calibration & Brier score