If POR visited DET today, our model would lean Detroit Pistons with a 74.4% win probability. That reflects a season-long net rating edge of +4.8 points for DET at home (plus ELO, rest, and recent form factored in).

Hypothetical matchup — these teams aren't scheduled to play. The model updates daily as ratings and ELO move.

Team Stats Comparison

2025–26 Season

-2.7

Net Rating

2.1

111.0

Offensive Rating

114.6

113.7

Defensive Rating

112.5

99.5

Pace

100.3

POR (Away) DET (Home)

Recent Form

POR 43-44 L3 Avg margin last 5: -12.4

L SAS

W SAS

L SAS

DET 67-29 L1 Avg margin last 5: -6.0

L CLE

W CLE

L CLE

Head-to-Head History

DET wins

POR wins

2025-12-22 POR 110 @ DET 102 POR W

2025-12-05 POR 116 @ DET 122 DET W

2025-03-09 POR 119 @ DET 112 POR W

2025-01-06 POR 115 @ DET 118 DET W

2024-02-08 POR 128 @ DET 122 POR W

How Often Has the Model Been Right?

Verified track record across every prediction we've made — not specific to this matchup.

67.1%

All Games

7146 tracked

75.1%

High Conf.

>65% picks

80.0%

Last 50

recent games

The model is an isotonic-calibrated XGBoost classifier — a 74.4% confidence above means "the model picked teams at this confidence level and was right about 75.1% of the time" historically.

See full track record with calibration & Brier score