If POR visited HOU today, our model would lean Houston Rockets with a 64.7% win probability. That reflects a season-long net rating edge of +7.3 points for HOU at home (plus ELO, rest, and recent form factored in).

Hypothetical matchup — these teams aren't scheduled to play. The model updates daily as ratings and ELO move.

Team Stats Comparison

2025–26 Season

-2.7

Net Rating

4.6

111.0

Offensive Rating

114.9

113.7

Defensive Rating

110.3

99.5

Pace

99.0

POR (Away) HOU (Home)

Recent Form

POR 43-44 L3 Avg margin last 5: -12.4

L SAS

W SAS

L SAS

HOU 54-34 L1 Avg margin last 5: -1.2

L LAL

W LAL

L LAL

Head-to-Head History

HOU wins

POR wins

2026-03-06 POR 99 @ HOU 106 HOU W

2026-01-09 POR 105 @ HOU 111 HOU W

2026-01-07 POR 102 @ HOU 103 HOU W

2025-11-14 POR 116 @ HOU 140 HOU W

2025-01-18 POR 125 @ HOU 103 POR W

How Often Has the Model Been Right?

Verified track record across every prediction we've made — not specific to this matchup.

67.1%

All Games

7146 tracked

75.1%

High Conf.

>65% picks

80.0%

Last 50

recent games

The model is an isotonic-calibrated XGBoost classifier — a 64.7% confidence above means "the model picked teams at this confidence level and was right about 75.1% of the time" historically.

See full track record with calibration & Brier score