If POR visited IND today, our model would lean Portland Trail Blazers with a 56.6% win probability. That reflects a season-long net rating edge of +4.8 points for IND at home (plus ELO, rest, and recent form factored in).

Hypothetical matchup — these teams aren't scheduled to play. The model updates daily as ratings and ELO move.

Team Stats Comparison

2025–26 Season

-2.7

Net Rating

2.1

111.0

Offensive Rating

115.4

113.7

Defensive Rating

113.3

99.5

Pace

100.8

POR (Away) IND (Home)

Recent Form

POR 43-44 L3 Avg margin last 5: -12.4

L SAS

W SAS

L SAS

IND 19-63 L2 Avg margin last 5: -4.6

L DET

L PHI

W BKN

L MIN

L CLE

Head-to-Head History

IND wins

POR wins

2026-03-18 POR 127 @ IND 119 POR W

2026-03-08 POR 111 @ IND 131 IND W

2025-02-04 POR 89 @ IND 112 IND W

2024-11-27 POR 114 @ IND 121 IND W

2024-01-19 POR 115 @ IND 118 IND W

How Often Has the Model Been Right?

Verified track record across every prediction we've made — not specific to this matchup.

67.1%

All Games

7146 tracked

75.1%

High Conf.

>65% picks

80.0%

Last 50

recent games

The model is an isotonic-calibrated XGBoost classifier — a 56.6% confidence above means "the model picked teams at this confidence level and was right about 75.1% of the time" historically.

See full track record with calibration & Brier score