If POR visited MEM today, our model would lean Portland Trail Blazers with a 63.3% win probability. That reflects a season-long net rating edge of +7.4 points for MEM at home (plus ELO, rest, and recent form factored in).

Hypothetical matchup — these teams aren't scheduled to play. The model updates daily as ratings and ELO move.

Team Stats Comparison

2025–26 Season

-2.7

Net Rating

4.7

111.0

Offensive Rating

117.2

113.7

Defensive Rating

112.6

99.5

Pace

103.7

POR (Away) MEM (Home)

Recent Form

POR 43-44 L3 Avg margin last 5: -12.4

L SAS

W SAS

L SAS

MEM 25-57 L8 Avg margin last 5: -25.2

L HOU

L UTA

L DEN

L CLE

L MIL

Head-to-Head History

MEM wins

POR wins

2026-03-04 POR 122 @ MEM 114 POR W

2026-02-07 POR 115 @ MEM 122 MEM W

2026-02-06 POR 115 @ MEM 135 MEM W

2025-12-07 POR 96 @ MEM 119 MEM W

2025-03-19 POR 99 @ MEM 115 MEM W

How Often Has the Model Been Right?

Verified track record across every prediction we've made — not specific to this matchup.

67.1%

All Games

7146 tracked

75.1%

High Conf.

>65% picks

80.0%

Last 50

recent games

The model is an isotonic-calibrated XGBoost classifier — a 63.3% confidence above means "the model picked teams at this confidence level and was right about 75.1% of the time" historically.

See full track record with calibration & Brier score