If POR visited PHX today, our model would lean Phoenix Suns with a 58.2% win probability. That reflects a season-long net rating edge of -0.3 points for PHX at home (plus ELO, rest, and recent form factored in).

Hypothetical matchup — these teams aren't scheduled to play. The model updates daily as ratings and ELO move.

Team Stats Comparison

2025–26 Season

-2.7

Net Rating

-3.0

111.0

Offensive Rating

114.7

113.7

Defensive Rating

117.7

99.5

Pace

98.3

POR (Away) PHX (Home)

Recent Form

POR 43-44 L3 Avg margin last 5: -12.4

L SAS

W SAS

L SAS

PHX 45-41 L4 Avg margin last 5: -7.4

L OKC

W OKC

Head-to-Head History

PHX wins

POR wins

2026-02-22 POR 92 @ PHX 77 POR W

2026-02-03 POR 130 @ PHX 125 POR W

2025-11-18 POR 127 @ PHX 110 POR W

2025-02-03 POR 119 @ PHX 121 PHX W

2025-02-01 POR 108 @ PHX 127 PHX W

How Often Has the Model Been Right?

Verified track record across every prediction we've made — not specific to this matchup.

67.1%

All Games

7146 tracked

75.1%

High Conf.

>65% picks

80.0%

Last 50

recent games

The model is an isotonic-calibrated XGBoost classifier — a 58.2% confidence above means "the model picked teams at this confidence level and was right about 75.1% of the time" historically.

See full track record with calibration & Brier score