If POR visited UTA today, our model would lean Portland Trail Blazers with a 81.5% win probability. That reflects a season-long net rating edge of -6.5 points for UTA at home (plus ELO, rest, and recent form factored in).

Hypothetical matchup — these teams aren't scheduled to play. The model updates daily as ratings and ELO move.

Team Stats Comparison

2025–26 Season

-2.7

Net Rating

-9.2

111.0

Offensive Rating

110.2

113.7

Defensive Rating

119.4

99.5

Pace

100.8

POR (Away) UTA (Home)

Recent Form

POR 43-44 L3 Avg margin last 5: -12.4

L SAS

W SAS

L SAS

UTA 22-60 L1 Avg margin last 5: -13.2

L LAL

W MEM

L NOP

L OKC

L HOU

Head-to-Head History

UTA wins

POR wins

2026-03-13 POR 114 @ UTA 124 UTA W

2026-02-12 POR 135 @ UTA 119 POR W

2026-01-05 POR 117 @ UTA 137 UTA W

2025-10-29 POR 136 @ UTA 134 POR W

2025-04-09 POR 126 @ UTA 133 UTA W

How Often Has the Model Been Right?

Verified track record across every prediction we've made — not specific to this matchup.

67.1%

All Games

7146 tracked

75.1%

High Conf.

>65% picks

80.0%

Last 50

recent games

The model is an isotonic-calibrated XGBoost classifier — a 81.5% confidence above means "the model picked teams at this confidence level and was right about 75.1% of the time" historically.

See full track record with calibration & Brier score