If SAC visited ATL today, our model would lean Atlanta Hawks with a 80.0% win probability. That reflects a season-long net rating edge of -1.7 points for ATL at home (plus ELO, rest, and recent form factored in).

Hypothetical matchup — these teams aren't scheduled to play. The model updates daily as ratings and ELO move.

Team Stats Comparison

2025–26 Season

0.6

Net Rating

-1.1

115.9

Offensive Rating

113.7

115.3

Defensive Rating

114.8

98.9

Pace

103.4

SAC (Away) ATL (Home)

Recent Form

SAC 22-60 L1 Avg margin last 5: -7.2

L POR

W GSW

L GSW

L LAC

W NOP

ATL 48-40 L3 Avg margin last 5: -18.8

L NYK

W NYK

Head-to-Head History

ATL wins

SAC wins

2026-03-28 SAC 113 @ ATL 123 ATL W

2025-11-12 SAC 133 @ ATL 100 SAC W

2024-11-18 SAC 109 @ ATL 108 SAC W

2024-11-01 SAC 123 @ ATL 115 SAC W

2024-01-22 SAC 107 @ ATL 122 ATL W

How Often Has the Model Been Right?

Verified track record across every prediction we've made — not specific to this matchup.

67.1%

All Games

7146 tracked

75.1%

High Conf.

>65% picks

80.0%

Last 50

recent games

The model is an isotonic-calibrated XGBoost classifier — a 80.0% confidence above means "the model picked teams at this confidence level and was right about 75.1% of the time" historically.

See full track record with calibration & Brier score