If SAC visited CHA today, our model would lean Charlotte Hornets with a 89.7% win probability. That reflects a season-long net rating edge of -9.7 points for CHA at home (plus ELO, rest, and recent form factored in).

Hypothetical matchup — these teams aren't scheduled to play. The model updates daily as ratings and ELO move.

Team Stats Comparison

2025–26 Season

0.6

Net Rating

-9.1

115.9

Offensive Rating

106.7

115.3

Defensive Rating

115.7

98.9

Pace

98.2

SAC (Away) CHA (Home)

Recent Form

SAC 22-60 L1 Avg margin last 5: -7.2

L POR

W GSW

L GSW

L LAC

W NOP

CHA 44-38 W1 Avg margin last 5: +4.0

W NYK

L DET

L BOS

W MIN

W IND

Head-to-Head History

CHA wins

SAC wins

2026-03-24 SAC 90 @ CHA 134 CHA W

2026-03-11 SAC 117 @ CHA 109 SAC W

2025-04-04 SAC 125 @ CHA 102 SAC W

2025-02-24 SAC 88 @ CHA 130 CHA W

2024-01-10 SAC 123 @ CHA 98 SAC W

How Often Has the Model Been Right?

Verified track record across every prediction we've made — not specific to this matchup.

67.1%

All Games

7146 tracked

75.1%

High Conf.

>65% picks

80.0%

Last 50

recent games

The model is an isotonic-calibrated XGBoost classifier — a 89.7% confidence above means "the model picked teams at this confidence level and was right about 75.1% of the time" historically.

See full track record with calibration & Brier score