If SAC visited DEN today, our model would lean Denver Nuggets with a 100.0% win probability. That reflects a season-long net rating edge of +3.2 points for DEN at home (plus ELO, rest, and recent form factored in).

Hypothetical matchup — these teams aren't scheduled to play. The model updates daily as ratings and ELO move.

Team Stats Comparison

2025–26 Season

0.6

Net Rating

3.8

115.9

Offensive Rating

118.9

115.3

Defensive Rating

115.1

98.9

Pace

100.7

SAC (Away) DEN (Home)

Recent Form

SAC 22-60 L1 Avg margin last 5: -7.2

L POR

W GSW

L GSW

L LAC

W NOP

DEN 56-32 L1 Avg margin last 5: -7.6

L MIN

W MIN

L MIN

Head-to-Head History

DEN wins

SAC wins

2025-12-11 SAC 136 @ DEN 105 SAC W

2025-11-22 SAC 128 @ DEN 123 SAC W

2025-11-11 SAC 122 @ DEN 108 SAC W

2025-11-03 SAC 124 @ DEN 130 DEN W

2025-04-09 SAC 124 @ DEN 116 SAC W

How Often Has the Model Been Right?

Verified track record across every prediction we've made — not specific to this matchup.

67.1%

All Games

7146 tracked

75.1%

High Conf.

>65% picks

80.0%

Last 50

recent games

The model is an isotonic-calibrated XGBoost classifier — a 100.0% confidence above means "the model picked teams at this confidence level and was right about 75.1% of the time" historically.

See full track record with calibration & Brier score