If SAC visited TOR today, our model would lean Toronto Raptors with a 89.7% win probability. That reflects a season-long net rating edge of -4.7 points for TOR at home (plus ELO, rest, and recent form factored in).

Hypothetical matchup — these teams aren't scheduled to play. The model updates daily as ratings and ELO move.

Team Stats Comparison

2025–26 Season

0.6

Net Rating

-4.1

115.9

Offensive Rating

109.6

115.3

Defensive Rating

113.6

98.9

Pace

100.6

SAC (Away) TOR (Home)

Recent Form

SAC 22-60 L1 Avg margin last 5: -7.2

L POR

W GSW

L GSW

L LAC

W NOP

TOR 49-40 L1 Avg margin last 5: +2.2

L CLE

W CLE

L CLE

W CLE

Head-to-Head History

TOR wins

SAC wins

2026-04-01 SAC 123 @ TOR 115 SAC W

2026-01-21 SAC 122 @ TOR 109 SAC W

2024-11-06 SAC 107 @ TOR 122 TOR W

2024-11-02 SAC 128 @ TOR 131 TOR W

2024-03-20 SAC 123 @ TOR 89 SAC W

How Often Has the Model Been Right?

Verified track record across every prediction we've made — not specific to this matchup.

67.1%

All Games

7146 tracked

75.1%

High Conf.

>65% picks

80.0%

Last 50

recent games

The model is an isotonic-calibrated XGBoost classifier — a 89.7% confidence above means "the model picked teams at this confidence level and was right about 75.1% of the time" historically.

See full track record with calibration & Brier score