If SAC visited UTA today, our model would lean Utah Jazz with a 51.8% win probability. That reflects a season-long net rating edge of -9.8 points for UTA at home (plus ELO, rest, and recent form factored in).

Hypothetical matchup — these teams aren't scheduled to play. The model updates daily as ratings and ELO move.

Team Stats Comparison

2025–26 Season

0.6

Net Rating

-9.2

115.9

Offensive Rating

110.2

115.3

Defensive Rating

119.4

98.9

Pace

100.8

SAC (Away) UTA (Home)

Recent Form

SAC 22-60 L1 Avg margin last 5: -7.2

L POR

W GSW

L GSW

L LAC

W NOP

UTA 22-60 L1 Avg margin last 5: -13.2

L LAL

W MEM

L NOP

L OKC

L HOU

Head-to-Head History

UTA wins

SAC wins

2026-03-15 SAC 111 @ UTA 116 UTA W

2026-02-11 SAC 93 @ UTA 121 UTA W

2025-11-28 SAC 119 @ UTA 128 UTA W

2025-10-24 SAC 104 @ UTA 105 UTA W

2025-02-26 SAC 118 @ UTA 101 SAC W

How Often Has the Model Been Right?

Verified track record across every prediction we've made — not specific to this matchup.

67.1%

All Games

7146 tracked

75.1%

High Conf.

>65% picks

80.0%

Last 50

recent games

The model is an isotonic-calibrated XGBoost classifier — a 51.8% confidence above means "the model picked teams at this confidence level and was right about 75.1% of the time" historically.

See full track record with calibration & Brier score