If SAC visited WAS today, our model would lean Sacramento Kings with a 61.2% win probability. That reflects a season-long net rating edge of -12.8 points for WAS at home (plus ELO, rest, and recent form factored in).

Hypothetical matchup — these teams aren't scheduled to play. The model updates daily as ratings and ELO move.

Team Stats Comparison

2025–26 Season

0.6

Net Rating

-12.2

115.9

Offensive Rating

105.8

115.3

Defensive Rating

118.0

98.9

Pace

101.8

SAC (Away) WAS (Home)

Recent Form

SAC 22-60 L1 Avg margin last 5: -7.2

L POR

W GSW

L GSW

L LAC

W NOP

WAS 17-65 L10 Avg margin last 5: -16.8

L CLE

L MIA

L CHI

L BKN

Head-to-Head History

WAS wins

SAC wins

2026-02-01 SAC 112 @ WAS 116 WAS W

2026-01-16 SAC 115 @ WAS 128 WAS W

2025-04-02 SAC 111 @ WAS 116 WAS W

2025-01-19 SAC 100 @ WAS 123 WAS W

2024-03-21 SAC 102 @ WAS 109 WAS W

How Often Has the Model Been Right?

Verified track record across every prediction we've made — not specific to this matchup.

67.1%

All Games

7146 tracked

75.1%

High Conf.

>65% picks

80.0%

Last 50

recent games

The model is an isotonic-calibrated XGBoost classifier — a 61.2% confidence above means "the model picked teams at this confidence level and was right about 75.1% of the time" historically.

See full track record with calibration & Brier score