If SAS visited BKN today, our model would lean San Antonio Spurs with a 81.5% win probability. That reflects a season-long net rating edge of -4.5 points for BKN at home (plus ELO, rest, and recent form factored in).

Hypothetical matchup — these teams aren't scheduled to play. The model updates daily as ratings and ELO move.

Team Stats Comparison

2025–26 Season

-2.8

Net Rating

-7.3

113.5

Offensive Rating

108.1

116.3

Defensive Rating

115.4

100.1

Pace

96.7

SAS (Away) BKN (Home)

Recent Form

SAS 75-26 W3 Avg margin last 5: +10.2

W OKC

L OKC

W OKC

BKN 20-62 L3 Avg margin last 5: -13.8

L TOR

L MIL

L IND

W MIL

W WAS

Head-to-Head History

BKN wins

SAS wins

2026-02-26 SAS 126 @ BKN 110 SAS W

2025-10-26 SAS 107 @ BKN 118 BKN W

2025-03-04 SAS 113 @ BKN 127 BKN W

2024-12-27 SAS 96 @ BKN 87 SAS W

2024-03-17 SAS 115 @ BKN 122 BKN W

How Often Has the Model Been Right?

Verified track record across every prediction we've made — not specific to this matchup.

67.1%

All Games

7146 tracked

75.1%

High Conf.

>65% picks

80.0%

Last 50

recent games

The model is an isotonic-calibrated XGBoost classifier — a 81.5% confidence above means "the model picked teams at this confidence level and was right about 75.1% of the time" historically.

See full track record with calibration & Brier score