If SAS visited DET today, our model would lean San Antonio Spurs with a 61.2% win probability. That reflects a season-long net rating edge of +4.9 points for DET at home (plus ELO, rest, and recent form factored in).

Hypothetical matchup — these teams aren't scheduled to play. The model updates daily as ratings and ELO move.

Team Stats Comparison

2025–26 Season

-2.8

Net Rating

2.1

113.5

Offensive Rating

114.6

116.3

Defensive Rating

112.5

100.1

Pace

100.3

SAS (Away) DET (Home)

Recent Form

SAS 75-26 W3 Avg margin last 5: +10.2

W OKC

L OKC

W OKC

DET 67-29 L1 Avg margin last 5: -6.0

L CLE

W CLE

L CLE

Head-to-Head History

DET wins

SAS wins

2026-03-05 SAS 106 @ DET 121 DET W

2026-02-23 SAS 114 @ DET 103 SAS W

2025-03-25 SAS 96 @ DET 122 DET W

2025-02-21 SAS 125 @ DET 110 SAS W

2024-04-14 SAS 95 @ DET 123 DET W

How Often Has the Model Been Right?

Verified track record across every prediction we've made — not specific to this matchup.

67.1%

All Games

7146 tracked

75.1%

High Conf.

>65% picks

80.0%

Last 50

recent games

The model is an isotonic-calibrated XGBoost classifier — a 61.2% confidence above means "the model picked teams at this confidence level and was right about 75.1% of the time" historically.

See full track record with calibration & Brier score