If SAS visited HOU today, our model would lean San Antonio Spurs with a 63.3% win probability. That reflects a season-long net rating edge of +7.4 points for HOU at home (plus ELO, rest, and recent form factored in).

Hypothetical matchup — these teams aren't scheduled to play. The model updates daily as ratings and ELO move.

Team Stats Comparison

2025–26 Season

-2.8

Net Rating

4.6

113.5

Offensive Rating

114.9

116.3

Defensive Rating

110.3

100.1

Pace

99.0

SAS (Away) HOU (Home)

Recent Form

SAS 75-26 W3 Avg margin last 5: +10.2

W OKC

L OKC

W OKC

HOU 54-34 L1 Avg margin last 5: -1.2

L LAL

W LAL

L LAL

Head-to-Head History

HOU wins

SAS wins

2026-03-08 SAS 120 @ HOU 145 HOU W

2026-01-28 SAS 111 @ HOU 99 SAS W

2026-01-20 SAS 106 @ HOU 111 HOU W

2025-11-07 SAS 110 @ HOU 121 HOU W

2025-02-26 SAS 106 @ HOU 118 HOU W

How Often Has the Model Been Right?

Verified track record across every prediction we've made — not specific to this matchup.

67.1%

All Games

7146 tracked

75.1%

High Conf.

>65% picks

80.0%

Last 50

recent games

The model is an isotonic-calibrated XGBoost classifier — a 63.3% confidence above means "the model picked teams at this confidence level and was right about 75.1% of the time" historically.

See full track record with calibration & Brier score