If SAS visited MIL today, our model would lean San Antonio Spurs with a 63.3% win probability. That reflects a season-long net rating edge of +5.2 points for MIL at home (plus ELO, rest, and recent form factored in).

Hypothetical matchup — these teams aren't scheduled to play. The model updates daily as ratings and ELO move.

Team Stats Comparison

2025–26 Season

-2.8

Net Rating

2.4

113.5

Offensive Rating

115.1

116.3

Defensive Rating

112.7

100.1

Pace

99.9

SAS (Away) MIL (Home)

Recent Form

SAS 75-26 W3 Avg margin last 5: +10.2

W OKC

L OKC

W OKC

MIL 32-50 L1 Avg margin last 5: -3.8

L PHI

W BKN

L DET

L BKN

W MEM

Head-to-Head History

MIL wins

SAS wins

2026-03-28 SAS 127 @ MIL 95 SAS W

2026-01-15 SAS 101 @ MIL 119 MIL W

2025-01-31 SAS 118 @ MIL 144 MIL W

2025-01-08 SAS 105 @ MIL 121 MIL W

2024-01-04 SAS 125 @ MIL 121 SAS W

How Often Has the Model Been Right?

Verified track record across every prediction we've made — not specific to this matchup.

67.1%

All Games

7146 tracked

75.1%

High Conf.

>65% picks

80.0%

Last 50

recent games

The model is an isotonic-calibrated XGBoost classifier — a 63.3% confidence above means "the model picked teams at this confidence level and was right about 75.1% of the time" historically.

See full track record with calibration & Brier score