If SAS visited OKC today, our model would lean San Antonio Spurs with a 56.6% win probability. That reflects a season-long net rating edge of +15.5 points for OKC at home (plus ELO, rest, and recent form factored in).

Hypothetical matchup — these teams aren't scheduled to play. The model updates daily as ratings and ELO move.

Team Stats Comparison

2025–26 Season

-2.8

Net Rating

12.7

113.5

Offensive Rating

119.2

116.3

Defensive Rating

106.6

100.1

Pace

100.9

SAS (Away) OKC (Home)

Recent Form

SAS 75-26 W3 Avg margin last 5: +10.2

W OKC

L OKC

W OKC

OKC 75-23 L3 Avg margin last 5: -10.2

L SAS

W SAS

L SAS

Head-to-Head History

OKC wins

SAS wins

2026-05-30 SAS 111 @ OKC 103 SAS W

2026-05-28 SAS 91 @ OKC 118 OKC W

2026-05-26 SAS 114 @ OKC 127 OKC W

2026-05-24 SAS 82 @ OKC 103 OKC W

How Often Has the Model Been Right?

Verified track record across every prediction we've made — not specific to this matchup.

67.1%

All Games

7146 tracked

75.1%

High Conf.

>65% picks

80.0%

Last 50

recent games

The model is an isotonic-calibrated XGBoost classifier — a 56.6% confidence above means "the model picked teams at this confidence level and was right about 75.1% of the time" historically.

See full track record with calibration & Brier score