If SAS visited PHI today, our model would lean San Antonio Spurs with a 77.8% win probability. That reflects a season-long net rating edge of -3.5 points for PHI at home (plus ELO, rest, and recent form factored in).

Hypothetical matchup — these teams aren't scheduled to play. The model updates daily as ratings and ELO move.

Team Stats Comparison

2025–26 Season

-2.8

Net Rating

-6.3

113.5

Offensive Rating

111.0

116.3

Defensive Rating

117.3

100.1

Pace

98.1

SAS (Away) PHI (Home)

Recent Form

SAS 75-26 W3 Avg margin last 5: +10.2

W OKC

L OKC

W OKC

PHI 49-44 L4 Avg margin last 5: -16.0

L NYK

W BOS

Head-to-Head History

PHI wins

SAS wins

2026-04-06 SAS 102 @ PHI 115 PHI W

2026-03-03 SAS 131 @ PHI 91 SAS W

2025-03-21 SAS 120 @ PHI 128 PHI W

2024-12-23 SAS 106 @ PHI 111 PHI W

2024-04-07 SAS 133 @ PHI 126 SAS W

How Often Has the Model Been Right?

Verified track record across every prediction we've made — not specific to this matchup.

67.1%

All Games

7146 tracked

75.1%

High Conf.

>65% picks

80.0%

Last 50

recent games

The model is an isotonic-calibrated XGBoost classifier — a 77.8% confidence above means "the model picked teams at this confidence level and was right about 75.1% of the time" historically.

See full track record with calibration & Brier score