If SAS visited SAC today, our model would lean San Antonio Spurs with a 81.5% win probability. That reflects a season-long net rating edge of +3.4 points for SAC at home (plus ELO, rest, and recent form factored in).

Hypothetical matchup — these teams aren't scheduled to play. The model updates daily as ratings and ELO move.

Team Stats Comparison

2025–26 Season

-2.8

Net Rating

0.6

113.5

Offensive Rating

115.9

116.3

Defensive Rating

115.3

100.1

Pace

98.9

SAS (Away) SAC (Home)

Recent Form

SAS 75-26 W3 Avg margin last 5: +10.2

W OKC

L OKC

W OKC

SAC 22-60 L1 Avg margin last 5: -7.2

L POR

W GSW

L GSW

L LAC

W NOP

Head-to-Head History

SAC wins

SAS wins

2026-03-17 SAS 132 @ SAC 104 SAS W

2026-02-21 SAS 122 @ SAC 139 SAC W

2025-11-16 SAS 110 @ SAC 123 SAC W

2025-03-07 SAS 109 @ SAC 127 SAC W

2024-12-06 SAS 140 @ SAC 113 SAS W

How Often Has the Model Been Right?

Verified track record across every prediction we've made — not specific to this matchup.

67.1%

All Games

7146 tracked

75.1%

High Conf.

>65% picks

80.0%

Last 50

recent games

The model is an isotonic-calibrated XGBoost classifier — a 81.5% confidence above means "the model picked teams at this confidence level and was right about 75.1% of the time" historically.

See full track record with calibration & Brier score