If SAS visited TOR today, our model would lean San Antonio Spurs with a 63.3% win probability. That reflects a season-long net rating edge of -1.3 points for TOR at home (plus ELO, rest, and recent form factored in).

Hypothetical matchup — these teams aren't scheduled to play. The model updates daily as ratings and ELO move.

Team Stats Comparison

2025–26 Season

-2.8

Net Rating

-4.1

113.5

Offensive Rating

109.6

116.3

Defensive Rating

113.6

100.1

Pace

100.6

SAS (Away) TOR (Home)

Recent Form

SAS 75-26 W3 Avg margin last 5: +10.2

W OKC

L OKC

W OKC

TOR 49-40 L1 Avg margin last 5: +2.2

L CLE

W CLE

L CLE

W CLE

Head-to-Head History

TOR wins

SAS wins

2026-02-25 SAS 110 @ TOR 107 SAS W

2025-10-27 SAS 103 @ TOR 121 TOR W

2025-04-13 SAS 118 @ TOR 125 TOR W

2025-03-23 SAS 123 @ TOR 89 SAS W

2024-02-12 SAS 122 @ TOR 99 SAS W

How Often Has the Model Been Right?

Verified track record across every prediction we've made — not specific to this matchup.

67.1%

All Games

7146 tracked

75.1%

High Conf.

>65% picks

80.0%

Last 50

recent games

The model is an isotonic-calibrated XGBoost classifier — a 63.3% confidence above means "the model picked teams at this confidence level and was right about 75.1% of the time" historically.

See full track record with calibration & Brier score