If SAS visited UTA today, our model would lean San Antonio Spurs with a 83.3% win probability. That reflects a season-long net rating edge of -6.4 points for UTA at home (plus ELO, rest, and recent form factored in).

Hypothetical matchup — these teams aren't scheduled to play. The model updates daily as ratings and ELO move.

Team Stats Comparison

2025–26 Season

-2.8

Net Rating

-9.2

113.5

Offensive Rating

110.2

116.3

Defensive Rating

119.4

100.1

Pace

100.8

SAS (Away) UTA (Home)

Recent Form

SAS 75-26 W3 Avg margin last 5: +10.2

W OKC

L OKC

W OKC

UTA 22-60 L1 Avg margin last 5: -13.2

L LAL

W MEM

L NOP

L OKC

L HOU

Head-to-Head History

UTA wins

SAS wins

2026-01-22 SAS 126 @ UTA 109 SAS W

2026-01-19 SAS 110 @ UTA 123 UTA W

2025-12-27 SAS 127 @ UTA 114 SAS W

2024-11-26 SAS 128 @ UTA 115 SAS W

2024-11-21 SAS 118 @ UTA 126 UTA W

How Often Has the Model Been Right?

Verified track record across every prediction we've made — not specific to this matchup.

67.1%

All Games

7146 tracked

75.1%

High Conf.

>65% picks

80.0%

Last 50

recent games

The model is an isotonic-calibrated XGBoost classifier — a 83.3% confidence above means "the model picked teams at this confidence level and was right about 75.1% of the time" historically.

See full track record with calibration & Brier score