If TOR visited CHI today, our model would lean Toronto Raptors with a 81.5% win probability. That reflects a season-long net rating edge of +2.5 points for CHI at home (plus ELO, rest, and recent form factored in).

Hypothetical matchup — these teams aren't scheduled to play. The model updates daily as ratings and ELO move.

Team Stats Comparison

2025–26 Season

-4.1

Net Rating

-1.6

109.6

Offensive Rating

113.2

113.6

Defensive Rating

114.8

100.6

Pace

103.6

TOR (Away) CHI (Home)

Recent Form

TOR 49-40 L1 Avg margin last 5: +2.2

L CLE

W CLE

L CLE

W CLE

CHI 31-51 L2 Avg margin last 5: -2.6

L DAL

L ORL

W WAS

L PHX

Head-to-Head History

CHI wins

TOR wins

2026-03-18 TOR 139 @ CHI 109 TOR W

2026-02-19 TOR 110 @ CHI 101 TOR W

2026-02-05 TOR 107 @ CHI 123 CHI W

2025-04-01 TOR 118 @ CHI 137 CHI W

2025-02-28 TOR 115 @ CHI 125 CHI W

How Often Has the Model Been Right?

Verified track record across every prediction we've made — not specific to this matchup.

67.1%

All Games

7146 tracked

75.1%

High Conf.

>65% picks

80.0%

Last 50

recent games

The model is an isotonic-calibrated XGBoost classifier — a 81.5% confidence above means "the model picked teams at this confidence level and was right about 75.1% of the time" historically.

See full track record with calibration & Brier score