If TOR visited CLE today, our model would lean Cleveland Cavaliers with a 65.4% win probability. That reflects a season-long net rating edge of +13.3 points for CLE at home (plus ELO, rest, and recent form factored in).

Hypothetical matchup — these teams aren't scheduled to play. The model updates daily as ratings and ELO move.

Team Stats Comparison

2025–26 Season

-4.1

Net Rating

9.2

109.6

Offensive Rating

121.0

113.6

Defensive Rating

111.8

100.6

Pace

100.3

TOR (Away) CLE (Home)

Recent Form

TOR 49-40 L1 Avg margin last 5: +2.2

L CLE

W CLE

L CLE

W CLE

CLE 60-40 L4 Avg margin last 5: -9.2

L NYK

W DET

Head-to-Head History

CLE wins

TOR wins

2026-05-03 TOR 102 @ CLE 114 CLE W

2026-05-01 TOR 110 @ CLE 112 CLE W

2026-04-29 TOR 120 @ CLE 125 CLE W

2026-04-26 TOR 89 @ CLE 93 CLE W

2026-04-23 TOR 104 @ CLE 126 CLE W

How Often Has the Model Been Right?

Verified track record across every prediction we've made — not specific to this matchup.

67.1%

All Games

7146 tracked

75.1%

High Conf.

>65% picks

80.0%

Last 50

recent games

The model is an isotonic-calibrated XGBoost classifier — a 65.4% confidence above means "the model picked teams at this confidence level and was right about 75.1% of the time" historically.

See full track record with calibration & Brier score