If TOR visited DAL today, our model would lean Toronto Raptors with a 81.5% win probability. That reflects a season-long net rating edge of +2.8 points for DAL at home (plus ELO, rest, and recent form factored in).

Hypothetical matchup — these teams aren't scheduled to play. The model updates daily as ratings and ELO move.

Team Stats Comparison

2025–26 Season

-4.1

Net Rating

-1.3

109.6

Offensive Rating

113.7

113.6

Defensive Rating

115.0

100.6

Pace

100.2

TOR (Away) DAL (Home)

Recent Form

TOR 49-40 L1 Avg margin last 5: +2.2

L CLE

W CLE

L CLE

W CLE

DAL 26-56 W1 Avg margin last 5: -2.0

W CHI

L SAS

L PHX

L LAC

W LAL

Head-to-Head History

DAL wins

TOR wins

2026-03-08 TOR 92 @ DAL 122 DAL W

2025-10-26 TOR 129 @ DAL 139 DAL W

2025-04-11 TOR 102 @ DAL 124 DAL W

2024-12-07 TOR 125 @ DAL 118 TOR W

2024-02-28 TOR 136 @ DAL 125 TOR W

How Often Has the Model Been Right?

Verified track record across every prediction we've made — not specific to this matchup.

67.1%

All Games

7146 tracked

75.1%

High Conf.

>65% picks

80.0%

Last 50

recent games

The model is an isotonic-calibrated XGBoost classifier — a 81.5% confidence above means "the model picked teams at this confidence level and was right about 75.1% of the time" historically.

See full track record with calibration & Brier score