If TOR visited DEN today, our model would lean Denver Nuggets with a 67.4% win probability. That reflects a season-long net rating edge of +7.9 points for DEN at home (plus ELO, rest, and recent form factored in).

Hypothetical matchup — these teams aren't scheduled to play. The model updates daily as ratings and ELO move.

Team Stats Comparison

2025–26 Season

-4.1

Net Rating

3.8

109.6

Offensive Rating

118.9

113.6

Defensive Rating

115.1

100.6

Pace

100.7

TOR (Away) DEN (Home)

Recent Form

TOR 49-40 L1 Avg margin last 5: +2.2

L CLE

W CLE

L CLE

W CLE

DEN 56-32 L1 Avg margin last 5: -7.6

L MIN

W MIN

L MIN

Head-to-Head History

DEN wins

TOR wins

2026-03-20 TOR 115 @ DEN 121 DEN W

2025-12-31 TOR 106 @ DEN 103 TOR W

2024-11-04 TOR 119 @ DEN 121 DEN W

2024-10-28 TOR 127 @ DEN 125 TOR W

2024-03-11 TOR 119 @ DEN 125 DEN W

How Often Has the Model Been Right?

Verified track record across every prediction we've made — not specific to this matchup.

67.1%

All Games

7146 tracked

75.1%

High Conf.

>65% picks

80.0%

Last 50

recent games

The model is an isotonic-calibrated XGBoost classifier — a 67.4% confidence above means "the model picked teams at this confidence level and was right about 75.1% of the time" historically.

See full track record with calibration & Brier score