If TOR visited GSW today, our model would lean Toronto Raptors with a 73.2% win probability. That reflects a season-long net rating edge of +7.3 points for GSW at home (plus ELO, rest, and recent form factored in).

Hypothetical matchup — these teams aren't scheduled to play. The model updates daily as ratings and ELO move.

Team Stats Comparison

2025–26 Season

-4.1

Net Rating

3.2

109.6

Offensive Rating

114.2

113.6

Defensive Rating

111.0

100.6

Pace

99.4

TOR (Away) GSW (Home)

Recent Form

TOR 49-40 L1 Avg margin last 5: +2.2

L CLE

W CLE

L CLE

W CLE

GSW 37-45 L3 Avg margin last 5: -4.6

L LAC

L SAC

L LAL

W SAC

L HOU

Head-to-Head History

GSW wins

TOR wins

2026-01-20 TOR 145 @ GSW 127 TOR W

2025-12-28 TOR 127 @ GSW 141 GSW W

2025-03-20 TOR 114 @ GSW 117 GSW W

2025-01-13 TOR 101 @ GSW 104 GSW W

2024-03-01 TOR 120 @ GSW 105 TOR W

How Often Has the Model Been Right?

Verified track record across every prediction we've made — not specific to this matchup.

67.1%

All Games

7146 tracked

75.1%

High Conf.

>65% picks

80.0%

Last 50

recent games

The model is an isotonic-calibrated XGBoost classifier — a 73.2% confidence above means "the model picked teams at this confidence level and was right about 75.1% of the time" historically.

See full track record with calibration & Brier score