If TOR visited HOU today, our model would lean Houston Rockets with a 65.4% win probability. That reflects a season-long net rating edge of +8.7 points for HOU at home (plus ELO, rest, and recent form factored in).

Hypothetical matchup — these teams aren't scheduled to play. The model updates daily as ratings and ELO move.

Team Stats Comparison

2025–26 Season

-4.1

Net Rating

4.6

109.6

Offensive Rating

114.9

113.6

Defensive Rating

110.3

100.6

Pace

99.0

TOR (Away) HOU (Home)

Recent Form

TOR 49-40 L1 Avg margin last 5: +2.2

L CLE

W CLE

L CLE

W CLE

HOU 54-34 L1 Avg margin last 5: -1.2

L LAL

W LAL

L LAL

Head-to-Head History

HOU wins

TOR wins

2026-03-10 TOR 99 @ HOU 113 HOU W

2025-10-29 TOR 139 @ HOU 121 TOR W

2025-02-09 TOR 87 @ HOU 94 HOU W

2024-12-22 TOR 114 @ HOU 110 TOR W

2024-02-09 TOR 104 @ HOU 107 HOU W

How Often Has the Model Been Right?

Verified track record across every prediction we've made — not specific to this matchup.

67.1%

All Games

7146 tracked

75.1%

High Conf.

>65% picks

80.0%

Last 50

recent games

The model is an isotonic-calibrated XGBoost classifier — a 65.4% confidence above means "the model picked teams at this confidence level and was right about 75.1% of the time" historically.

See full track record with calibration & Brier score