If TOR visited IND today, our model would lean Toronto Raptors with a 81.5% win probability. That reflects a season-long net rating edge of +6.2 points for IND at home (plus ELO, rest, and recent form factored in).

Hypothetical matchup — these teams aren't scheduled to play. The model updates daily as ratings and ELO move.

Team Stats Comparison

2025–26 Season

-4.1

Net Rating

2.1

109.6

Offensive Rating

115.4

113.6

Defensive Rating

113.3

100.6

Pace

100.8

TOR (Away) IND (Home)

Recent Form

TOR 49-40 L1 Avg margin last 5: +2.2

L CLE

W CLE

L CLE

W CLE

IND 19-63 L2 Avg margin last 5: -4.6

L DET

L PHI

W BKN

L MIN

L CLE

Head-to-Head History

IND wins

TOR wins

2026-02-08 TOR 104 @ IND 122 IND W

2026-01-14 TOR 115 @ IND 101 TOR W

2025-11-26 TOR 95 @ IND 97 IND W

2025-11-15 TOR 129 @ IND 111 TOR W

2025-02-26 TOR 91 @ IND 111 IND W

How Often Has the Model Been Right?

Verified track record across every prediction we've made — not specific to this matchup.

67.1%

All Games

7146 tracked

75.1%

High Conf.

>65% picks

80.0%

Last 50

recent games

The model is an isotonic-calibrated XGBoost classifier — a 81.5% confidence above means "the model picked teams at this confidence level and was right about 75.1% of the time" historically.

See full track record with calibration & Brier score