If TOR visited MIN today, our model would lean Minnesota Timberwolves with a 58.2% win probability. That reflects a season-long net rating edge of +9.1 points for MIN at home (plus ELO, rest, and recent form factored in).

Hypothetical matchup — these teams aren't scheduled to play. The model updates daily as ratings and ELO move.

Team Stats Comparison

2025–26 Season

-4.1

Net Rating

5.0

109.6

Offensive Rating

115.7

113.6

Defensive Rating

110.8

100.6

Pace

98.0

TOR (Away) MIN (Home)

Recent Form

TOR 49-40 L1 Avg margin last 5: +2.2

L CLE

W CLE

L CLE

W CLE

MIN 55-39 L2 Avg margin last 5: -19.8

L SAS

W SAS

L SAS

Head-to-Head History

MIN wins

TOR wins

2026-03-05 TOR 107 @ MIN 115 MIN W

2026-02-04 TOR 128 @ MIN 126 TOR W

2024-11-21 TOR 105 @ MIN 110 MIN W

2024-10-26 TOR 101 @ MIN 112 MIN W

2024-04-03 TOR 85 @ MIN 133 MIN W

How Often Has the Model Been Right?

Verified track record across every prediction we've made — not specific to this matchup.

67.1%

All Games

7146 tracked

75.1%

High Conf.

>65% picks

80.0%

Last 50

recent games

The model is an isotonic-calibrated XGBoost classifier — a 58.2% confidence above means "the model picked teams at this confidence level and was right about 75.1% of the time" historically.

See full track record with calibration & Brier score