If TOR visited OKC today, our model would lean Oklahoma City Thunder with a 89.7% win probability. That reflects a season-long net rating edge of +16.8 points for OKC at home (plus ELO, rest, and recent form factored in).

Hypothetical matchup — these teams aren't scheduled to play. The model updates daily as ratings and ELO move.

Team Stats Comparison

2025–26 Season

-4.1

Net Rating

12.7

109.6

Offensive Rating

119.2

113.6

Defensive Rating

106.6

100.6

Pace

100.9

TOR (Away) OKC (Home)

Recent Form

TOR 49-40 L1 Avg margin last 5: +2.2

L CLE

W CLE

L CLE

W CLE

OKC 75-23 L3 Avg margin last 5: -10.2

L SAS

W SAS

L SAS

Head-to-Head History

OKC wins

TOR wins

2026-02-24 TOR 116 @ OKC 107 TOR W

2026-01-25 TOR 103 @ OKC 101 TOR W

2025-02-07 TOR 109 @ OKC 121 OKC W

2024-12-05 TOR 129 @ OKC 92 TOR W

2024-03-22 TOR 123 @ OKC 103 TOR W

How Often Has the Model Been Right?

Verified track record across every prediction we've made — not specific to this matchup.

67.1%

All Games

7146 tracked

75.1%

High Conf.

>65% picks

80.0%

Last 50

recent games

The model is an isotonic-calibrated XGBoost classifier — a 89.7% confidence above means "the model picked teams at this confidence level and was right about 75.1% of the time" historically.

See full track record with calibration & Brier score