If TOR visited PHX today, our model would lean Phoenix Suns with a 70.4% win probability. That reflects a season-long net rating edge of +1.1 points for PHX at home (plus ELO, rest, and recent form factored in).

Hypothetical matchup — these teams aren't scheduled to play. The model updates daily as ratings and ELO move.

Team Stats Comparison

2025–26 Season

-4.1

Net Rating

-3.0

109.6

Offensive Rating

114.7

113.6

Defensive Rating

117.7

100.6

Pace

98.3

TOR (Away) PHX (Home)

Recent Form

TOR 49-40 L1 Avg margin last 5: +2.2

L CLE

W CLE

L CLE

W CLE

PHX 45-41 L4 Avg margin last 5: -7.4

L OKC

W OKC

Head-to-Head History

PHX wins

TOR wins

2026-03-22 TOR 98 @ PHX 120 PHX W

2026-03-13 TOR 115 @ PHX 122 PHX W

2025-03-17 TOR 89 @ PHX 129 PHX W

2025-02-23 TOR 109 @ PHX 127 PHX W

2024-03-07 TOR 113 @ PHX 120 PHX W

How Often Has the Model Been Right?

Verified track record across every prediction we've made — not specific to this matchup.

67.1%

All Games

7146 tracked

75.1%

High Conf.

>65% picks

80.0%

Last 50

recent games

The model is an isotonic-calibrated XGBoost classifier — a 70.4% confidence above means "the model picked teams at this confidence level and was right about 75.1% of the time" historically.

See full track record with calibration & Brier score