If TOR visited POR today, our model would lean Portland Trail Blazers with a 65.4% win probability. That reflects a season-long net rating edge of +1.4 points for POR at home (plus ELO, rest, and recent form factored in).

Hypothetical matchup — these teams aren't scheduled to play. The model updates daily as ratings and ELO move.

Team Stats Comparison

2025–26 Season

-4.1

Net Rating

-2.7

109.6

Offensive Rating

111.0

113.6

Defensive Rating

113.7

100.6

Pace

99.5

TOR (Away) POR (Home)

Recent Form

TOR 49-40 L1 Avg margin last 5: +2.2

L CLE

W CLE

L CLE

W CLE

POR 43-44 L3 Avg margin last 5: -12.4

L SAS

W SAS

L SAS

Head-to-Head History

POR wins

TOR wins

2026-01-23 TOR 110 @ POR 98 TOR W

2025-12-02 TOR 118 @ POR 121 POR W

2025-04-03 TOR 112 @ POR 103 TOR W

2025-03-16 TOR 102 @ POR 105 POR W

2024-03-09 TOR 118 @ POR 128 POR W

How Often Has the Model Been Right?

Verified track record across every prediction we've made — not specific to this matchup.

67.1%

All Games

7146 tracked

75.1%

High Conf.

>65% picks

80.0%

Last 50

recent games

The model is an isotonic-calibrated XGBoost classifier — a 65.4% confidence above means "the model picked teams at this confidence level and was right about 75.1% of the time" historically.

See full track record with calibration & Brier score