If TOR visited SAS today, our model would lean San Antonio Spurs with a 85.7% win probability. That reflects a season-long net rating edge of +1.3 points for SAS at home (plus ELO, rest, and recent form factored in).

Hypothetical matchup — these teams aren't scheduled to play. The model updates daily as ratings and ELO move.

Team Stats Comparison

2025–26 Season

-4.1

Net Rating

-2.8

109.6

Offensive Rating

113.5

113.6

Defensive Rating

116.3

100.6

Pace

100.1

TOR (Away) SAS (Home)

Recent Form

TOR 49-40 L1 Avg margin last 5: +2.2

L CLE

W CLE

L CLE

W CLE

SAS 75-26 W3 Avg margin last 5: +10.2

W OKC

L OKC

W OKC

Head-to-Head History

SAS wins

TOR wins

2026-02-25 TOR 110 @ SAS 107 TOR W

2025-10-27 TOR 103 @ SAS 121 SAS W

2025-04-13 TOR 118 @ SAS 125 SAS W

2025-03-23 TOR 123 @ SAS 89 TOR W

2024-02-12 TOR 122 @ SAS 99 TOR W

How Often Has the Model Been Right?

Verified track record across every prediction we've made — not specific to this matchup.

67.1%

All Games

7146 tracked

75.1%

High Conf.

>65% picks

80.0%

Last 50

recent games

The model is an isotonic-calibrated XGBoost classifier — a 85.7% confidence above means "the model picked teams at this confidence level and was right about 75.1% of the time" historically.

See full track record with calibration & Brier score