If UTA visited DEN today, our model would lean Denver Nuggets with a 100.0% win probability. That reflects a season-long net rating edge of +13.0 points for DEN at home (plus ELO, rest, and recent form factored in).

Hypothetical matchup — these teams aren't scheduled to play. The model updates daily as ratings and ELO move.

Team Stats Comparison

2025–26 Season

-9.2

Net Rating

3.8

110.2

Offensive Rating

118.9

119.4

Defensive Rating

115.1

100.8

Pace

100.7

UTA (Away) DEN (Home)

Recent Form

UTA 22-60 L1 Avg margin last 5: -13.2

L LAL

W MEM

L NOP

L OKC

L HOU

DEN 56-32 L1 Avg margin last 5: -7.6

L MIN

W MIN

L MIN

Head-to-Head History

DEN wins

UTA wins

2026-04-01 UTA 130 @ DEN 117 UTA W

2026-03-27 UTA 129 @ DEN 135 DEN W

2026-03-02 UTA 128 @ DEN 125 UTA W

2025-12-22 UTA 112 @ DEN 135 DEN W

2025-03-28 UTA 93 @ DEN 129 DEN W

How Often Has the Model Been Right?

Verified track record across every prediction we've made — not specific to this matchup.

67.1%

All Games

7146 tracked

75.1%

High Conf.

>65% picks

80.0%

Last 50

recent games

The model is an isotonic-calibrated XGBoost classifier — a 100.0% confidence above means "the model picked teams at this confidence level and was right about 75.1% of the time" historically.

See full track record with calibration & Brier score