If UTA visited GSW today, our model would lean Golden State Warriors with a 74.7% win probability. That reflects a season-long net rating edge of +12.4 points for GSW at home (plus ELO, rest, and recent form factored in).

Hypothetical matchup — these teams aren't scheduled to play. The model updates daily as ratings and ELO move.

Team Stats Comparison

2025–26 Season

-9.2

Net Rating

3.2

110.2

Offensive Rating

114.2

119.4

Defensive Rating

111.0

100.8

Pace

99.4

UTA (Away) GSW (Home)

Recent Form

UTA 22-60 L1 Avg margin last 5: -13.2

L LAL

W MEM

L NOP

L OKC

L HOU

GSW 37-45 L3 Avg margin last 5: -4.6

L LAC

L SAC

L LAL

W SAC

L HOU

Head-to-Head History

GSW wins

UTA wins

2026-03-09 UTA 116 @ GSW 119 GSW W

2026-01-28 UTA 140 @ GSW 124 UTA W

2026-01-03 UTA 114 @ GSW 123 GSW W

2025-11-24 UTA 117 @ GSW 134 GSW W

2025-02-05 UTA 128 @ GSW 131 GSW W

How Often Has the Model Been Right?

Verified track record across every prediction we've made — not specific to this matchup.

67.1%

All Games

7146 tracked

75.1%

High Conf.

>65% picks

80.0%

Last 50

recent games

The model is an isotonic-calibrated XGBoost classifier — a 74.7% confidence above means "the model picked teams at this confidence level and was right about 75.1% of the time" historically.

See full track record with calibration & Brier score