If UTA visited HOU today, our model would lean Houston Rockets with a 100.0% win probability. That reflects a season-long net rating edge of +13.8 points for HOU at home (plus ELO, rest, and recent form factored in).

Hypothetical matchup — these teams aren't scheduled to play. The model updates daily as ratings and ELO move.

Team Stats Comparison

2025–26 Season

-9.2

Net Rating

4.6

110.2

Offensive Rating

114.9

119.4

Defensive Rating

110.3

100.8

Pace

99.0

UTA (Away) HOU (Home)

Recent Form

UTA 22-60 L1 Avg margin last 5: -13.2

L LAL

W MEM

L NOP

L OKC

L HOU

HOU 54-34 L1 Avg margin last 5: -1.2

L LAL

W LAL

L LAL

Head-to-Head History

HOU wins

UTA wins

2026-04-03 UTA 106 @ HOU 140 HOU W

2026-02-23 UTA 105 @ HOU 125 HOU W

2025-12-01 UTA 125 @ HOU 133 HOU W

2025-11-30 UTA 129 @ HOU 101 UTA W

2025-04-02 UTA 105 @ HOU 143 HOU W

How Often Has the Model Been Right?

Verified track record across every prediction we've made — not specific to this matchup.

67.1%

All Games

7146 tracked

75.1%

High Conf.

>65% picks

80.0%

Last 50

recent games

The model is an isotonic-calibrated XGBoost classifier — a 100.0% confidence above means "the model picked teams at this confidence level and was right about 75.1% of the time" historically.

See full track record with calibration & Brier score