If UTA visited PHX today, our model would lean Phoenix Suns with a 81.5% win probability. That reflects a season-long net rating edge of +6.2 points for PHX at home (plus ELO, rest, and recent form factored in).

Hypothetical matchup — these teams aren't scheduled to play. The model updates daily as ratings and ELO move.

Team Stats Comparison

2025–26 Season

-9.2

Net Rating

-3.0

110.2

Offensive Rating

114.7

119.4

Defensive Rating

117.7

100.8

Pace

98.3

UTA (Away) PHX (Home)

Recent Form

UTA 22-60 L1 Avg margin last 5: -13.2

L LAL

W MEM

L NOP

L OKC

L HOU

PHX 45-41 L4 Avg margin last 5: -7.4

L OKC

W OKC

Head-to-Head History

PHX wins

UTA wins

2026-03-28 UTA 109 @ PHX 134 PHX W

2025-10-31 UTA 96 @ PHX 118 PHX W

2025-10-27 UTA 134 @ PHX 138 PHX W

2025-02-07 UTA 127 @ PHX 135 PHX W

2025-01-11 UTA 106 @ PHX 114 PHX W

How Often Has the Model Been Right?

Verified track record across every prediction we've made — not specific to this matchup.

67.1%

All Games

7146 tracked

75.1%

High Conf.

>65% picks

80.0%

Last 50

recent games

The model is an isotonic-calibrated XGBoost classifier — a 81.5% confidence above means "the model picked teams at this confidence level and was right about 75.1% of the time" historically.

See full track record with calibration & Brier score