If UTA visited SAS today, our model would lean San Antonio Spurs with a 89.7% win probability. That reflects a season-long net rating edge of +6.4 points for SAS at home (plus ELO, rest, and recent form factored in).

Hypothetical matchup — these teams aren't scheduled to play. The model updates daily as ratings and ELO move.

Team Stats Comparison

2025–26 Season

-9.2

Net Rating

-2.8

110.2

Offensive Rating

113.5

119.4

Defensive Rating

116.3

100.8

Pace

100.1

UTA (Away) SAS (Home)

Recent Form

UTA 22-60 L1 Avg margin last 5: -13.2

L LAL

W MEM

L NOP

L OKC

L HOU

SAS 75-26 W3 Avg margin last 5: +10.2

W OKC

L OKC

W OKC

Head-to-Head History

SAS wins

UTA wins

2026-01-22 UTA 126 @ SAS 109 UTA W

2026-01-19 UTA 110 @ SAS 123 SAS W

2025-12-27 UTA 127 @ SAS 114 UTA W

2024-11-26 UTA 128 @ SAS 115 UTA W

2024-11-21 UTA 118 @ SAS 126 SAS W

How Often Has the Model Been Right?

Verified track record across every prediction we've made — not specific to this matchup.

67.1%

All Games

7146 tracked

75.1%

High Conf.

>65% picks

80.0%

Last 50

recent games

The model is an isotonic-calibrated XGBoost classifier — a 89.7% confidence above means "the model picked teams at this confidence level and was right about 75.1% of the time" historically.

See full track record with calibration & Brier score