If WAS visited CLE today, our model would lean Cleveland Cavaliers with a 100.0% win probability. That reflects a season-long net rating edge of +21.4 points for CLE at home (plus ELO, rest, and recent form factored in).

Hypothetical matchup — these teams aren't scheduled to play. The model updates daily as ratings and ELO move.

Team Stats Comparison

2025–26 Season

-12.2

Net Rating

9.2

105.8

Offensive Rating

121.0

118.0

Defensive Rating

111.8

101.8

Pace

100.3

WAS (Away) CLE (Home)

Recent Form

WAS 17-65 L10 Avg margin last 5: -16.8

L CLE

L MIA

L CHI

L BKN

CLE 60-40 L4 Avg margin last 5: -9.2

L NYK

W DET

Head-to-Head History

CLE wins

WAS wins

2026-04-12 WAS 117 @ CLE 130 CLE W

2026-02-11 WAS 113 @ CLE 138 CLE W

2025-12-12 WAS 130 @ CLE 126 WAS W

2025-11-07 WAS 148 @ CLE 115 WAS W

2025-02-07 WAS 134 @ CLE 124 WAS W

How Often Has the Model Been Right?

Verified track record across every prediction we've made — not specific to this matchup.

67.1%

All Games

7146 tracked

75.1%

High Conf.

>65% picks

80.0%

Last 50

recent games

The model is an isotonic-calibrated XGBoost classifier — a 100.0% confidence above means "the model picked teams at this confidence level and was right about 75.1% of the time" historically.

See full track record with calibration & Brier score