If WAS visited DAL today, our model would lean Dallas Mavericks with a 74.7% win probability. That reflects a season-long net rating edge of +10.9 points for DAL at home (plus ELO, rest, and recent form factored in).

Hypothetical matchup — these teams aren't scheduled to play. The model updates daily as ratings and ELO move.

Team Stats Comparison

2025–26 Season

-12.2

Net Rating

-1.3

105.8

Offensive Rating

113.7

118.0

Defensive Rating

115.0

101.8

Pace

100.2

WAS (Away) DAL (Home)

Recent Form

WAS 17-65 L10 Avg margin last 5: -16.8

L CLE

L MIA

L CHI

L BKN

DAL 26-56 W1 Avg margin last 5: -2.0

W CHI

L SAS

L PHX

L LAC

W LAL

Head-to-Head History

DAL wins

WAS wins

2025-11-08 WAS 111 @ DAL 105 WAS W

2025-10-24 WAS 117 @ DAL 107 WAS W

2025-01-27 WAS 108 @ DAL 130 DAL W

2024-12-05 WAS 137 @ DAL 101 WAS W

2024-02-12 WAS 104 @ DAL 112 DAL W

How Often Has the Model Been Right?

Verified track record across every prediction we've made — not specific to this matchup.

67.1%

All Games

7146 tracked

75.1%

High Conf.

>65% picks

80.0%

Last 50

recent games

The model is an isotonic-calibrated XGBoost classifier — a 74.7% confidence above means "the model picked teams at this confidence level and was right about 75.1% of the time" historically.

See full track record with calibration & Brier score